Hi ,
There's nothing more annoying than leaving for work without an umbrella and getting rained on during your journey home. Yet, carrying an umbrella on your train ride can be a nuisance, too.
So, on a day when the true probability of rain is just 5%, which of these weather forecasts would be more useful to you?
- An accurate forecast of a 5% chance of rain.
- A biased forecast of a 20% chance of rain.
Hit reply
to let me know, along with your reason for choosing this option.
More to follow soon,
Dr Genevieve Hayes
